Last week, the three big auction houses held sales in New York, capping one of the most eventful, controversial, and downright confusing auction years in awhile. The results were relatively strong, especially considering the recent discourse around auctions, but also helped illustrate what continues to be strong in a slowing market, and what's on the downswing. Let's talk about both.
The action started at Christie's on December 5. The house has had a rough go of it the past couple of months, with the cancellation of Only Watch, the confusion and subsequent civil suit around Mohammed Zaman's Passion for Time sale (we'll have more on this soon), and the disappointing OAK Collection: Part I in Hong Kong that totaled just $6.6 million off a low estimate of $9.2 million. But, Christie's New York sale was surprisingly positive, with a sales total of $11.2 million and 96 percent of lots sold (remember, 30 percent of lots passed in June). This is the only sale I didn't attend in person, but one of the headliners was Andy Warhol's Patek 3448 perpetual, which hammered below the low estimate ($378,000 all-in; estimate $350,000–600,000). Every season or two, a watch with Warhol provenance seems to come to auction, and I just don't think the connection demands that much of a premium; earlier this year, we covered one of Warhol's 2526s that sold. (Side note: can we get a little more coordination from the auction houses? Having a sale on Tuesday (Christie's), Thursday (Sotheby's), and Saturday–Sunday (Phillips) makes it inconvenient for out-of-towners.)
The Space-Dweller became the most expensive 1016 ever sold last weekend.
I hate those super-specific records like "most expensive yellow gold Patek chronograph sold in the Western Hemisphere on a Tuesday." It feels kind of like advanced baseball analytics but for watches and as much as I love debating WARs and ERA+ and ERA++, sometimes I just want to talk about how sweet Ken Griffey Jr.'s swing was.
Despite my disdain for super-specific superlatives, I'm giving the Rolex 1016 a pass because I love it, I guess? Because I'm wearing one as I type this? Anyway, the Space-Dweller (ref. 1016) is one of those vintage Rolex watches with as much myth as the lost city of Atlantis. It's a regular 1016 – usually an Explorer – just with that one familiar line of text swapped for something more mysterious. Supposedly, Rolex made a handful of Space-Dwellers in the '60s for the Japanese market. It's been said this was to celebrate the Mercury astronauts' tour of Japan, but I'm not sure there's any real evidence of this origin story.
While there are myths about its origin, not much is actually known about the origin of the Space-Dweller.
Whatever the real story, a Space-Dweller 1016 sold for $190,500 at Phillips, making it the most expensive 1016 ever. It passes the last Space-Dweller to appear at auction (~$136,000 in 2020) and the albino 1016 (CHF 101,600 in May 2023). Similar to those albino dials I wrote about, it's an equally interesting and dangerous area of vintage Rolex.
This Space-Dweller reached this price simply because of that one line of text. We don't know how many of these beautiful gilt dials exist – in fact, a few loose dials sold at auction 15 years ago – and we can't even really tell if they were born in a specific case. Further, this example has Rolex Japan service papers, but no model name noted, sadly. It's another shred of evidence as to the potential origin of the Space-Dweller. I know the winner of the watch – an astute collector, might I add – and he promises he'll let us know if the papers give any more clues as to the origin of the Space-Dweller. So stay tuned.
The 1518R from the original family that sold for $1.5 million.
Before we get to corners of the watch market that are trending down, let's talk about one area that's not going anywhere and never really does. Vintage Patek, and vintage, complicated Patek in particular, remains the cornerstone of every auction season. Of the 422 lots across live sales, 28 percent were Pateks. And the top watches performed well – to cherry-pick a few highlights:
- Patek 1518R at Sotheby's: $1.5 million
- Tiffany-signed, Breguet Patek 1463J at Sotheby's: $596,900
- Patek 1518R at Phillips: $1.8 million
- "Pink on pink" Patek 1463 at Phillips: $565,150
- Patek 3974J at Phillips: $635,000
These are the blue chips of the blue chips, and the solid results are evidence of some of the points John Reardon made in his recent chat with Ben, where he talked about the strength of complicated Pateks, even as sports models have cooled off dramatically.
The 1518R at Sotheby's
The 1518R at Sotheby's wasn't perfect – it had a cleaned dial and polished case, as with most 1518s – but it was in honest condition, coming from the original owner. The condition report is extremely thorough and should be seen as an industry standard, documenting each watch component, an excellent learning opportunity for those who want to know more about 1518s. Well done, and thank you, Sotheby's! A prominent bidder in the room won this 1518, not the type of guy who makes a business of buying crappy 1518s.
As Reardon said, interest in complicated Pateks also extends beyond these true vintage references.
First series 3970s and 3940s in particular are "through the roof right now, but condition is everything," Reardon told Ben. To take an example of what he means: a naked, polished 3970ER still passed at Sotheby's (because of the 3970's stepped lugs, it's pretty easy to tell when they've been polished; note the lack of definition in this example, images below). Collectors are evaluating potential neo-vintage trophies with the same level of discernment that they view vintage watches.
Look at the sharpness and definition of the 3970 case on the left compared to right, especially noticeable on the stepped lugs. The 3970 on the left is likely unpolished, while the example on the right has clearly been polished and lost some of the detail that makes these 3970 cases so elegant. This case condition was a contributing factor to the second example passing at auction last week. Images: Both Sotheby's
"The enduring strength of trophy vintage pieces was unmistakably evident," Geoff Hess said after his first successful sale as Sotheby's Head of Watches. He added that there was "noteworthy demand for newly discovered treasures, reflecting the enthusiasm for fresh-to-market watches."
Interest in complicated Pateks extends to the neo-vintage era. For example, a naked 3974J perpetual calendar minute repeater (i.e., no box or original papers) from 1991 sold for $635,000. This example had a lot going for it, including a Hagmann case and extra doré dial.
Interlude: The $400k G-Shock In The Room
This doesn't count as one of my "5 Results" promised in the headline, but I'd be remiss not to mention the $400,000 G-Shock at Phillips. I wanted to hate this thing, but if you can't love a ridiculous, all-gold G-Shock that weighs about as much as The Rock after he hits the Golden Corral, then maybe find a new slant. It's a one-off and all proceeds went to the Nature Conservancy, so it says basically nothing about the wider market – it's just a cool thing.
The G-Shock "Dream Project #2" was made with help from generative AI, which did some tech mumbo jumbo and worked with humans to arrive at, basically, the ultimate G-Shock.
To put it in perspective: For the price of this one G-Shock, you could buy 2,162 Ed Sheeran G-Shocks if you prefer. It's kind of like that question about fighting a horse-sized duck or duck-sized horses – I'm honestly not sure which ridiculous hypothetical I'd rather live in.
Okay, back to reality.
A Daniels Anniversary sold for $609,600, down from the highs of last year.
While "trophy" vintage performed in New York, some of the indies have plateaued. A month after a Dufour Simplicity passed in Hong Kong and a unique Dufour for charity didn't live up to lofty expectations ($1.2 million on an estimate of $1.5–3 million), a 37mm Simplicity sold for $558,800 at Phillips. First, to state the obvious: That's still a ton of money for a three-hander. It wasn't that long ago Ben was writing about the very first Simplicitys to come to auction, which sold for about $250,000. But it's certainly off those pandemic-fueled highs when it felt like every Simplicity and maybe every Smith, too, might be a million-dollar proposition.
At Phillips, both a Daniels Millenium ($469,900) and Anniversary ($609,600) were down from highs – just 12 months ago, an Anniversary sold for $816,000 at Phillips. A few days later, another Millenium passed at Bonham's London.
At the end of the day, only a few buyers got in at those inflated prices. But as clients have become more thoughtful about buying, these indies have put themselves in a bit of a pickle: in many cases, they've raised retail prices so much over the past few years that they exceed what might be the new normal for their secondary markets. I'm not even sure this is a bad thing, as it gets us back to the normal in which you should expect to lose money on an indie as soon as you drive it off the lot, and reminds us that the last few years really were this weird little blip.
A $1.5 million Daytona, and honestly, it felt like one.
I thought I'd seen the best John Player Special when Rolex itself bought a beautiful example at auction in May for $2.5 million. But Sotheby's managed to find another amazing JPS in New York, which sold for $1.5 million. This example sat untouched in a bank vault for 50 years and came from the original American family. It might've been in even better condition than the last example since it came on a strap, leaving the case without any bracelet or end link scratches. It's hard to convey how pristine this watch was, so just take a few seconds to zoom in on Mark's photos here.
JPS 6241, 1518, at 1463 – tough to pick.
One more cool note: This is a 14k gold example, usually found in the States (as opposed to the more common 18k) to lessen import taxes. It's estimated that only about 3,000 6241s were ever produced, only about 300 of those in gold, and a small subset of those had JPS dials.
Despite its fascinating provenance, Admiral Byrd's Weems was withdrawn before the sale
It wasn't all headlines and rainbows for vintage watches though. The morning of the Sotheby's sale, it withdrew the Longines Weems formerly owned by Admiral Richard Byrd. The withdrawal seems to have been due to a lack of interest at the price: it had an estimate of $100,000 to $200,000, always an aggressive ask for this watch. Meanwhile, a similar Longines/Wittnauer Weems passed at Christie's. No doubt, these are awesome watches. The Byrd Weems, in particular, has great provenance and story attached. But the lack of interest in both of these lots illustrates the trepidation in putting money in vintage watches that don't say "Patek" or "Rolex" on the dial. I wouldn't even say it's a lack of interest – vintage Longines collectors are some of the most passionate around – but it's just that the market is incredibly thin, and if collectors feel it's volatile, best to wait.
This Baignoire Charlie Chaplin gave to his wife Oona sold for $32,000
That said, vintage Cartier seems to be the one brand that still defies gravity. Here's just a sample of Cartier results from the past few weeks, some at the big houses and some not:
- Platinum Tank Cintrèe: sold for €149,000 at Aguttes. Service dial, hands, and movement. In other words, $164,000 for a vintage platinum Cintree case. Crazy!
- Baignoire with Chaplin provenance: sold for $32,000 at Sotheby's. The Baignoire continues to "have a moment," so says the NY Times.
- Cartier London Tank: $47,800 at Christie's. Cartier London, in particular, continues to receive outsized attention.
- Maxi Oval: $120,650 at Phillips. From Cartier New York, less often seen, featuring an Audemars Piguet movement. What a cool watch.
- 1920s Tank Normale: sold for £28,160 at Bonham's. Original and charming, with a cool caseback engraving but a very rough dial.
A rarely seen Maxi Oval made for Cartier New York, featuring an AP movement. Take that, London!
Provenance, condition, era, none of it seems to matter much. If it says "Cartier" on the dial, it sells, and for more than whatever estimate you put on it. It's a conundrum because I do consider Cartier one of the "blue chips" along with Rolex and Patek, and it wasn't right that a 1991 Crash was selling for just $30,000 five years ago. But, I'm not sure all of these buyers are observing the same level of discernment that I just discussed as so important in Rolex and Patek.
That said, there's always been a theory that the Cartier buyer is a bit different. They don't care as much about service dials, polishing, or originality – they just want a beautiful design. But to me, much of the beauty of Cartier's designs and cases comes from their sharp, original lines: The bevels on a Santos or a Normale, or the golden proportions of a Tank Louis. I hope this appreciation for their original beauty isn't lost.
